1、A Fertile Ground for Investment ReturnsNew Growth Engines for a Changing WorldInvestment OutlookQ1 2025Global Private BankingChief Investment Officer,Southeast Asia and India James Cheo Chief Investment Officer,EMEA and Switzerland Georgios Leontaris Chief Investment Officer,North Asia Patrick Ho Ch
2、ief Investment Officer,China Desmond Kuang DChief Investment Officer,Americas Jose RascoHead of Asset Allocation Stanko Milojevic Director,Global Market Strategist and Managing Editor Neha Sahni Chief Investment Officer,UK Jonathan Sparks ContributorsChief Investment Officer,Asia Cheuk Wan Fan Globa
3、l Market Analyst,Real Estate Investment Guy Sheppard Senior Product Specialist,Private Market Investments Jorge Huitron Global Head of Fixed Income Laurent Lacroix Global Head of Equities Kevin Lyne Smith kevin.lyne-Currencies and Commodities Strategist Rodolphe Bohn Director,Global Equities Bryan O
4、Carroll Head of European Hedge Fund Research Alex Grievson A Global Chief Investment Officer Willem Sels 2 2New Growth Engines for a Changing WorldInvestment Outlook Q1 2025 3Contents05 Client Letter06 Our Portfolio Strategy10 Top Five Trends and High Conviction Themes 10 1.Asia in the New World Ord
5、er 12 2.Disruptive Technologies 14 3.Climate Action 16 4.Evolving Society 18 5.Riding the Earnings and Rate Cut Tailwinds20 Equities22 Fixed Income24 Currencies and Commodities26 Hedge Funds28 Private Markets30 Real Estate32 DisclaimersInvestment OutlookNew Growth Engines for a Changing WorldQ1 2025
6、.Issued on 21 November 2024Investment OutlookDiscover domestic resilience in an evolving AsiaQ1 2025.Issued on 21 November 20244Dear client The past few months were dominated by US election uncertainty,which left investors in limbo but still allowed equity markets to rally.Markets are happy that the
7、y know the result and can now plan ahead.And although the new administrations policies bring uncertainty on the domestic policy,trade and fiscal front,the result is seen as positive for US risk assets.On other fronts,we have more clarity too.Most notably,it has become clear that the US is not on cou
8、rse for a recession:its steady GDP print resembles a super tanker that will be difficult to blow off course.Risks to the worlds second biggest economy(China)are now tilted to the upside thanks to a big pivot towards fiscal and monetary stimulus(even though the path is complicated by the risk of high
9、er tariffs).The worlds most populous country(India)meanwhile benefits from strong cyclical and structural growth.It is also clear that the major Western central banks are all on a rate cutting path that should continue,while lower inflation gives consumers some breathing space.And corporate earnings
10、 have continued to surprise to the upside,proving that many companies have benefited a lot from innovation,and have suffered less from high rates than many expected.Clarity is good for investors as it can reduce risk premia and support valuation multiples.In our view it will also help trigger more i
11、nvestment by the private sector,which should be a key engine of growth.Many companies are sitting on cash which they will be happy to put to work,while others will take advantage of lower borrowing costs to invest.More M&A and more share buybacks will boost shareholder value and support stock market
12、s.Most governments do not have the healthy balance sheets of the corporate sector,but they share the view that they must innovate and invest to grow in a competitive world.Many of them have therefore formulated detailed and ambitious industrial policies with fiscal support and deregulation as the ma
13、in instruments.We see this as a second important engine for growth and investment opportunities.Manufacturing and advanced technologies tend to be a priority for those industrial policies as they are viewed as strategic and even a matter of national security they should therefore be a key area of op
14、portunities for investors.They will also require investment in infrastructure,especially in digital and electricity.All of these growth engines power opportunities under our thematic trends,including Disruptive Technologies,Climate Action and Evolving Society.Moreover,the continued global economic m
15、omentum and the multiple engines create many opportunities in both public and private markets.Following two years of solid returns for well-diversified portfolios,we think there is further scope for attractive returns.We therefore continue to keep cash balances in our model portfolios at a minimum.W
16、e continue to see better opportunities in the US than in Europe,due to relative levels of current growth,innovation and policy support.Despite increased trade uncertainty after the US elections,we expect Asian growth to stay resilient in 2025 with the support of robust domestic growth in India and ASEAN,together with Chinas widening policy stimulus.We focus on resilient domestic leaders in Asia,where we hold overweight positions in India,Japan and Singapores stock markets.We think a positive cyc